What is the equation now?

We win #1 one game we are mathematically assured.

Not to sound rude at all, because every scenario in my head tells me it’s that simple

Is there any sequence that can cause us to miss out on qualification even if we beat one of the UAE/Windies? Surely 7 points is enough?

Just to add to my last point, I base this on my fact WI v Scotland is still to come, there’s no rain. So there can be only one winner

eugene wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:28 pm

Is there any sequence that can cause us to miss out on qualification even if we beat one of the UAE/Windies? Surely 7 points is enough?

Scotland win 2x against Irish and UAE with a better NRR.

UAE and Ireland

On the other hand. WI Romp home against Scotland and us

TapsC wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:31 pm

If we beat Afghanistan we cant miss out because Scotland and the West Indies still have to play each other. I hope I'm right but from what I looked at that's what's in our favour.

Wrong on two levels

eugene wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:28 pm

Is there any sequence that can cause us to miss out on qualification even if we beat one of the UAE/Windies? Surely 7 points is enough?

The best Zimbabwe and Scotland can do is 9.

The best West Indies can do is 8.

The best Ireland and Afghanistan can do are 6.

---

Scotland and West Indies have a game against each other. So really it can either only be (at best):

- Scotland 9 / West Indies 6; or

- Scotland 7 / West Indies 8.

In that second scenario, if Scotland have a big win over Ireland and their NRR is higher than Zim then they'd qualify with West Indies.

As I understand it.

Ireland's win over Scotland mean's we pretty much just have to beat UAE to go through, if we beat them we're on 7 points

Ireland on 4 points with 1 game to go MAX 6 points

Scotland on 5 points with 1 game to go MAX 7 points

Windies on 4 points with 2 games to go MAX 8 points

Afghanistan on 2 points with 2 games to go MAX 6 points

UAE on 0 points with 2 games to go MAX 4 points

So they key thing to remember is that the Windies and Scotland play each other so only one of those sides can reach their MAX points so if we beat UAE only 1 of the Windies or Scotland can equal or surpass us. If we beat the Windies we are through also and this result would blow the tournament right open and keep the Irish and Afghans in the fight.

AT this stage it looks like Scotland and Windies playing off for the last spot

We can technically still make it if we lose both games.

If this happens, we are in if we lose both games.

UAE V Afg =UAE

Ire V afg= AFG

Scotland v Windies= Windies

This means the table will be

Windies=8

Zim= 5 (NRR better)

Scotland=5

Ireland=4

AFG=4

UAE=4

Its a stretch to think the UAE beat the afghans, but alaso remember UAE have knocked us over in this scenario too so its possible if this situation materialises.

jimbo wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:03 pm

Think we will knock over the windies. Cremer and chisoro the main architects

Yeah for some reason I'm really confident about the Windies game but very nervous about the UAE game. The Emirates are a dangerous and un-predictable side their batting is very good and if they win the toss bat first - get the right pitch - get a decent total then their spinners will come into the game.

Their bowling isn't that crash hot but if they can get 220-250 on a slowing pitch their part time Cabbies ( as the Dogg would say ) will be a handful.

There's rain predicted for Harare today.

I think a washout would secure us a spot... The only ways it wouldn't would have been if Scotland won yesterday. (or if Afghanistan really thump some teams and make up the NRR difference)

Can someone work out the equation now for:

- A washout vs UAE

- A loss vs UAE

???

:( my head hurts