Favourites to win the CWC 2018

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:50 am

sloandog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:25 am

Aditionally, If you think the West Indies are going to be down and out, think again. In Asia, sure, they'd struggle. But in Enagland on those pacey decks I'm calling it now that they'll do well. How can you say Afghanistan and Bangladesh are going to do better in those conditions..? You've seen yourself how s**t the Tigers pace bowling is on a flat deck (referring to the SA series) and they rely heavily on the big three to fire. You've got that winning order completely wrong, especially with Australia. They've just come off their worst ever ODI run, and you put them above SA and NZ..? Crazy

I might tweak my rankings but at the moment this is how it is, IMO.

Australia will have Smith and Warner back. And given that they have 5 titles, they will always have the mental edge over NZ and choke Africa. On top of that the Aussie pace attack is as strong as anyone's. They might say I'm under-rating them, but the truth is right now they don't have much support for Smith and Warner.

Everyone's pace attack will be s**t on those flat English decks where 481 can be scored.

Pakistan's pace attack is on level pegging with the Australian pace attack right now, without a doubt. Starc and Hazelwood are on fire I'll give you that, but Hasan Ali is just as good, and Mohammed Amir should never be written off in English conditions.

I still stand by what I said in the fact that the West Indies will enjoy the wickets in the UK. Powell, Darren Bravo and Shai Hope are all classy batters who enjoy the pace on the ball, and then the likes of Lewis, Gayle and Heymyr with thrive under conditions where they won't have to worry too much about the seaming ball, depending on the weather. The wickets here over the past 3 seasons (as you say) have been flat as a pancake, especially the big commercial grounds like Old Trafford, Lords and the Oval. Smaller county grounds may provide the odd green seamer but generally speaking I think the Windies will do well. They also have a more than handy pace bowling attack, especially now Oshane Thomas has been unleashed.

sloandog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:08 pm

Pakistan's pace attack is on level pegging with the Australian pace attack right now, without a doubt.

On which planet? Starc is the best ODI quick in the world and by some distance. Cummins is as good as Rabada or Ngidi. When Hazelwood is your 3rd best ODI quick, you have an insanely potent pace attack. Australia are struggling now, because they haven't fielded a full strength pace attack in some time, I don't think. Plus Smith and Warner are suspended.

Amir is still living off the hype of a single summer in 2010. And two limited overs games vs India (CT final and 2016 Asia Cup).

Hasan Ali is good yes, but he's at best a poor man's Bumrah or Mustafiz.

Shaheen also has potential given his youth, height, and pace. I'll give you that one. But if one or two men make a pace attack, then Bangladesh has one of the best pace attacks in the world too.

I still stand by what I said in the fact that the West Indies will enjoy the wickets in the UK. Powell, Darren Bravo and Shai Hope are all classy batters who enjoy the pace on the ball, and then the likes of Lewis, Gayle and Heymyr with thrive under conditions where they won't have to worry too much about the seaming ball, depending on the weather. The wickets here over the past 3 seasons (as you say) have been flat as a pancake, especially the big commercial grounds like Old Trafford, Lords and the Oval. Smaller county grounds may provide the odd green seamer but generally speaking I think the Windies will do well. They also have a more than handy pace bowling attack, especially now Oshane Thomas has been unleashed.

I disagree. Shai Hope bats too slowly in ODIs (that one India match notwithstanding). Ditto for Darren Bravo. Gayle is like 70 now, so it remains to be seen if he can still be the marauder he was. Hetmyer is class, but you need more than one batter. Powell is simply not good enough. Their seamers will be picked apart if the conditions are indeed flat. The Windies have some talent, but talent will only win you the odd game. Their ODI win-loss record is atrocious over the past 4 years, and that indicates they will be up against it next summer.

Here's how I predict the group stage, based on how things stand at this very moment (subject to change by May 2019) if all teams have a full strength squad available:

England 8-1

India 6-3

Australia 6-3

New Zealand 5-4

South Africa 5-4

Bangladesh 4-5

Pakistan 4-5

Sri Lanka 2-7

Afghanistan 2-7

West Indies 1-8

NZ/SA will be fighting for the final semi-final spot, and my money is on NZ to get it. England beats NZ in the semis, and whoever wins the India/Australia semi defeats England at Lords to win the Crown!

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:32 pm

Cummins is as good as Rabada or Ngidi.

He's on par with Ngidi, I don't think he's on par with (and certainly isn't better than) KG.

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:32 pm

mir is still living off the hype of a single summer in 2010. And two limited overs games vs India (CT final and 2016 Asia Cup).

Yep, I agree with you there, his form has been shady of late, but he's still an exceptional bowler when he clicks. And given the English conditions may be of assistance I still think he's dangerous and should be considered a threat.

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:32 pm

I disagree. Shai Hope bats too slowly in ODIs

He's revolutionised himself in ODI cricket since playing in India. Before that series I would have agreed with you, but his innings were amazing and some of the shots he played on the up, with pace on the ball were just amazing. You don't have to score at a strike rate of 100 anyway. Hope has class and the West Indies will need all of it.

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:32 pm

Ditto for Darren Bravo.

He's as valuable a player as anybody in this West Indies side, because like Hope, he can accumulate the runs and set the innings up.

I just think the West Indies should be given a bit more respect. Over the past 18 months they've unearthed some absolute gems with both bat and ball. Alzari Josef, Oshane Thomas, Shai Hope, Hetmyr, Pooran, Mcoy.

I don't think Rabada is all that great in ODIs. I have been wrong before, so I could be wrong, but his stats look merely solid. I'd imagine he plays on as sporting a deck as you will find in ODIs. Amir could certainly blast through a side with 4-15 type figures, but then the other 8 games he will probably take 4-500.

The Windies certainly have talent, but talent is not enough to win games consistently at a world cup. That talent has to be synergized and organized. If the Windies can do that, they can certainly be a threat, like they are in the T20 format. But the ODI game isn't just about big hitting (Windies are amongst the best in that department) or flashy strokeplay for 20 odd deliveries. You have to be able to get about 5 runs an over, without taking risks, and save wickets for the last 10 overs to set up a challenging total. And then, because English/ODI/World Cup wickets are so flat, your bowlers will have to bowl immaculately to a plan and create some luck.

India, Australia, England, New Zealand, and South Africa are the teams who will be vying for a semi-final spot. Pakistan and Bangladesh are the next teams, but they will need to signficantly up their games if they are to have a shot at competing for one of those 4 slots.

Overall, this is going to be an amazing WC, likely the best one yet. It will be brutally unforgiving. A single game could make or break campaigns. I expect most of the games to be exciting, high scoring, and England has the best "neutral" crowds owing to the large expat populations of basically all the teams competing. The number of one-sided games should be limited to a bear minimum...I predict just 5-6 one-sided games out of 50 or so.

Not having the Associates will reduce the charm factor, but it will be replaced by big bucks, and high octane quality cricket.

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:15 am

he Windies certainly have talent, but talent is not enough to win games consistently at a world cup. That talent has to be synergized and organized. If the Windies can do that, they can certainly be a threat, like they are in the T20 format. But the ODI game isn't just about big hitting (Windies are amongst the best in that department) or flashy strokeplay for 20 odd deliveries. You have to be able to get about 5 runs an over, without taking risks, and save wickets for the last 10 overs to set up a challenging total.

But I think that's where the merit of having Hope and Bravo comes in mate. They can take measured approach, and save the hitting for Gayle, Lewis, Hetmyr, Samuels or Pooran. Sure they're a young side, but this is the most I've been excited about the West Indies for a while, as they seem to be finding players which have been missing over the past 15 years or so; both in the bowling and the batting department.

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:15 am

Overall, this is going to be an amazing WC, likely the best one yet

I'll drink to that

Yeah despite the fact Im against a 10 team WC it will be a great sceptical, this is how I see it -

Favourites - India

Strengths - Best all round side with explosive batting and a bountiful of options in their bowling stocks, Kohli is the best 'flat track bully' not because he can't play on difficult tracks but because he rarely misses out on the flat tracks which are the norm in ODI cricket. These guys play so much ODI and t20 cricket at a high level they have all their bases covered.

Weaknesses - The only weakness I can think India have is possibly the balance of their side, none of their batsman can really bowl and none of their bowlers can really bat, this has been the catalyst for Jadeja's return to the side. If you go after one of their bowlers they don't really have the flexibility to get overs from somewhere else.

Runners up - England

Strengths -Great side they've put together with the long list of guys who can bat and bowl they bat deep and have about 6-7 front line bowlers in their side. Their top order is scary with Roy, Bairstow & Hales fighting out for the openers spot then the class of Root and Morgan finished off with the fire power and finishing of Stokes, Butler & Ali they really have the perfect balance for their batting.

Weaknesses - Home crowd expectation will weigh heavily on them and in the past it has been a load to heavy to carry, I think for them it would almost have been better to go into this WC a little more under the radar but their form in the past 12 months has been top shelf. Have they 'peaked too early' ?

Semi Finalists - South Africa

Strengths - Who else but South Africa to choke in the semis again? They have a similar side to last WC and although they will miss AB they get the inclusion of KG and Ngidi who will form the best seam attack in the tournament with Dale Steyn. David Miller also seems to be in red hot form but can he keep it going until the WC??

Weaknesses - Easy to say they're chokers but I think they're short a good batman and a good allrounder to be able to knock off England or India, Markram and Hendricks haven't set the world alight and although Amla will return is he still the batsman he once was? They like India also have balancing issues with their XI although Duminy is a good offie he can't be trusted to bowl 10 good overs so they need an allrounder. Phehlukawayo & Pretorius have done well with the ball, but with a 'shaky' top order can they bank on them for runs in the pressure situations ?

Pakistan

Strengths - I agree with Sloan this side has all the tools and all the answers you need for an ODI side, ok they messed up in the Asia Cup but I'm not holding that against them, you could argue this side is more suited to English conditions anyways. They have two good openers and one of the best ODI batsman in the World Babar at 3, it needs to be his tournament if they're going to go far. Their bowling lineup has many options they seem to be able to pull quality left armers out of thin air.

Weaknesses - Unpredictability always haunts Pakistan and they're just as likely to stink it up and lose every game, there are always unknown factors lying beneath the surface with this side that can send them off the rails. They're also a fairly young side compared to the others.

The Rest

Australia

Strengths - Crazy bowling attack when Starc is on song and with Pat and Josh backing him up, they'll also have a rejuvenated batting lineup with Warner and Smith likely to return. Australia are the most successful nation at the World Cup so they can't be totally ridden off.

Weaknesses - Where to start? Only won two games in 2018 and with all the drama surrounding Sandpaper gate the the massive upheaval on and off the pitch it's hard to see them pulling it all together in time. Selection has also became a mess with the panel deciding to fill the side with sloggers and fast bowlers, their is no craft or trickery to the side it's just all 'bang and bash' stuff and it hasn't worked.

New Zealand

Strengths - Could easily sneak into the semis because they're such a well oiled unit with a great core of players who know their role and do it well. Williamson and Taylor are class batsman whilst Boult and Southee have a wealth of skill and experience.

Weaknesses - Didn't quite have enough firepower to win the last WC and haven't replaced Brendan McCullum so I can't see them being able to take that next step. As I said they're a good unit but I think they'll struggle to win enough games in a row against the top sides.

Windies

Strengths - They seem to be getting a few players back and could field one of the most exciting sides in the competition if they get Lewis, Gayle, Bravo, Samuels, Hope, Russell, Hetmeyer etc all firing at the same time. They've shown when they 'get the band back together' they can win these types of tournaments winning two t20 World Cups.

Weaknesses - Can this side blend together in time to form a team capable of winning the whole thing?? They certainly have the players but these guys haven't been playing together consistently like the other nations. Probably lack that real class batsman like a Kohli, Root or Babar too many of their guys are hit or miss.

Bangladesh

Strengths - Best all round side they've ever had with plenty of seam bowling options to go with their spinners, they also seem to have numerous top order options now with Kayes, Sarker & Das or fighting to partner Tamim at the top of the order. They've also done well at their last three ODI major tournaments.

Weaknesses - Conditions won't suit them as much as it will most of the other nations, their batsman like the lower decks prepared on the sub-continent and even their seamers probably enjoy those conditions more. Also they won't be able to count on one upset against a top side to take them through to the next stage like they did at the last WC & CT they'll need to win multiple games against sides better than them.

Sri Lanka

Strengths - A rich history of doing well at World Cups will help give the Sri Lankans hope as they head to England, knowing they've done well in previous World Cups when they've been ridden off will be drummed into the players. Whilst their form has been very poor of late you feel they have a good young core of players just waiting to take that next step.

Weaknesses - They've been terrible in ODI's for a few years now and unlike their previous sides they don't have the World Class Players like Sanga, Mahela, Mulari, Vaas etc to count on. Their bowling attack is really poor as well they don't really have any world class bowlers at the moment which seems to be their biggest problem.

Afghanistan

Strengths - Rashid Khan and their fighting spirit are their biggest and only real strengths they'll take into this World Cup, in Khan they have the Best Spin bowler in this format so if he has a day out they're always a chance of an upset. They've also shown they can compete against the best sides on the back of their fighting spirit. They'll go into this tournament as the most dangerous side because they have nothing to lose, any win will be a bonus and for this side taking the scalp of a big team is what they're after.

Weaknesses - All round class, experience and big match know how will be lacking from the Blue Tigers which will ultimately cost them games, although they did show in the Asia Cup they can compete. Their batting has always been an issue with the side just as likely to crumble to 100 all out v Hong Kong as they are to India, although they did bat pretty well in the Asia Cup these conditions will be much different.

Outcasts - Zimbabwe :cry:

sloandog wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:33 pm

Outcasts - Zimbabwe :cry:

😢😢😢😢

To be fair though the way Zimbabwe is playing ODI cricket they wouldn’t have brought much to the tournament, Afghanistan have Rashid & their fighting spirit.

very well thought out summary Jaybro...

I would largely agree except I think NZ are slightly underrated and PAK overrated.

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:51 am

very well thought out summary Jaybro...

I would largely agree except I think NZ are slightly underrated and PAK overrated.

Don’t get me wrong I still rate and respect NZ, but as I said they haven’t really found a replacement for BMac and he was such a big player for them.

jaybro wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:27 am

Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:51 am

very well thought out summary Jaybro...

I would largely agree except I think NZ are slightly underrated and PAK overrated.

Don’t get me wrong I still rate and respect NZ, but as I said they haven’t really found a replacement for BMac and he was such a big player for them.

The side they had in 2015 was unreal. Their lead up to that tournament was so explosive and they crucified the srilankans in that 7 match ODI series. Everybody was in s**t hot form. Boult and Southee were in the wickets, as was Matt Henry, Milne was bowling gas, Vetorri was still there, and then the batting was exactly the same. Even Luke Ronchi had scored 170* leading into that CWC. That was their best chance, with that side, in home conditions, and they couldn't quiet get over the line. I doubt they'll get to the final this time since they haven't really replaced Elliot or Mccullum, nor has Vetorri been adequately replaced...Santner is decent but he's an average player compared to DVT