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Cremer rebuffs match fixer

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Opening post


jaybro wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:52 pm

If you know the result is certain though even odds of $1.50 can yield a big return of you bet big enough


Yes, but if you have a million dollars, would you risk fixing a match just to make 500,000? Well I guess that kind of return might entice someone but I'm not sure. The entity is already a millionaire to begin with...the risk seems exorbitant.

The other issue is a single very large bet would require a massive volume of betting on a ZIM-AFG match. If the whole pot only has a total volume of say 5 million, and 1 person alone makes up 20% of that:

1) you won't get the return you bet for (1.5 million) because the bookie will always get his cut, then there are the others who would have winning bets (nearly half the betters since the teams are so evenly matched)

2) such a large bet from a single party would look susispicious to the bookies and other betters.

3) If the bookie is the one who is fixing, he will get his cut, but again about half of the other betters will have also made winning bets, so he makes comparitively little money fixing a match between equally ranked sides.

The other issue is Afganhistan losing 5 wickets for runs is not at all surprising, nor Zimbabwe is getting shot out for 54 against a very good bowling attack.

The real money would be in fixing a match with a full strength India, England, or Australia. High volume of bets placed, and great odds.
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eugene wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:48 pm


ZIMDOGGY wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:41 pm

I should rename my user handle from zimdoggy to ‘the prophet’


Ha! You mostly just regurgitate what I tell you in facebook messenger.


That only happened once, the rest I foreshadowed like an accurate and intelligent Nostradamus
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or maybe the thought process would be that nobody would really be monitoring the bets in a Zimbabwe game? I actually think a lot of money is made on these smaller teams.. the ashes and any game involving India would have a crack team of cyber analysts monitoring the bets. imagine the guys who bet Scotland to beat Zim? easy pickings for a result which would seem unlikely but nobody would be shocked either.

I will admit I don't know exactly how the numbers work for the whole process

I am also thinking the bookies logic was targeting Cremer and not the whole game. looking at our bowling attack you would have obviously assumed that Cremer would take the majority of the wickets for zim and I'm sure the odds were there. and it would have been a reasonable bet..you could simply pay Cremer 30k to have a bad series and you pocket 150k..
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TapsC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:32 am

or maybe the thought process would be that nobody would really be monitoring the bets in a Zimbabwe game? I actually think a lot of money is made on these smaller teams.. the ashes and any game involving India would have a crack team of cyber analysts monitoring the bets. imagine the guys who bet Scotland to beat Zim? easy pickings for a result which would seem unlikely but nobody would be shocked either.

I will admit I don't know exactly how the numbers work for the whole process

I am also thinking the bookies logic was targeting Cremer and not the whole game. looking at our bowling attack you would have obviously assumed that Cremer would take the majority of the wickets for zim and I'm sure the odds were there. and it would have been a reasonable bet..you could simply pay Cremer 30k to have a bad series and you pocket 150k..


The answer is spot fixing. No balls or dot balls at any particular time dont rely on the strenght of the two teams and the payouts would be big I would assume.

Its true that volume of dbetting would be less in ZIM vs IRE as opposed to the Ashes, but as I pointed out to Jaybro...if the volume is small, a single large bet of say 100,000 would throw off the calculations such that the odds would no longer be 1.50 to 1 on a ZIM loss. The bookies manipulate the odds based on bets received, which is legal.
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Kriterion_BD wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:11 pm


TapsC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:32 am

or maybe the thought process would be that nobody would really be monitoring the bets in a Zimbabwe game? I actually think a lot of money is made on these smaller teams.. the ashes and any game involving India would have a crack team of cyber analysts monitoring the bets. imagine the guys who bet Scotland to beat Zim? easy pickings for a result which would seem unlikely but nobody would be shocked either.

I will admit I don't know exactly how the numbers work for the whole process

I am also thinking the bookies logic was targeting Cremer and not the whole game. looking at our bowling attack you would have obviously assumed that Cremer would take the majority of the wickets for zim and I'm sure the odds were there. and it would have been a reasonable bet..you could simply pay Cremer 30k to have a bad series and you pocket 150k..


The answer is spot fixing. No balls or dot balls at any particular time dont rely on the strenght of the two teams and the payouts would be big I would assume.

Its true that volume of dbetting would be less in ZIM vs IRE as opposed to the Ashes, but as I pointed out to Jaybro...if the volume is small, a single large bet of say 100,000 would throw off the calculations such that the odds would no longer be 1.50 to 1 on a ZIM loss. The bookies manipulate the odds based on bets received, which is legal.


Only after the money has rolled in, so your 1.50 would be secured. c**ts after would cop the lower rate of return.

What I would do personally, is roll it into a multi.

A 1.50 into a safe bet like 1.10 elsewhere or another fix all of a sudden reaps more return.
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Of late, I've seen massive activity on Twitter for example, on match days when these lesser teams are playing, even for the A team matches, domestic games and things like that. Some crazy accounts from the subcontinent, they don't even look like genuine fans of the country or the game or any individual. Desperate for scores and regular updates, passing meaningless comments, discussing among themselves in broken language. I keep wondering what is in it for them. Could be an ecosystem for spot fixing?

P.S.: In fact, I have a suspicion about the stones and the bots of this realm too. They might be here to help themselves to some informed decision making along those lines - players, teams, who and what to punt on...
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